Insights from the HSBC Economic Outlook Webinar By Jade Pinkerton
This week, our mortgage advisor Jade Pinkerton attended an insightful webinar hosted by HSBC, featuring Group Economist Liz Martins. The timing was significant as it came just a day after the latest international tariff announcements from President Trump of the USA, a topic that dominated the discussion. In this blog, Jade outlines in her opinion, the most significant takeaways from the HSBC Economic Outlook webinar.
Key Takeaways from the HSBC Economic Outlook Webinar
- Tariff Uncertainty and Economic Reversals
The webinar opened with reflections on the newly announced tariffs, with HSBC noting that it’s still unclear how they’ll play out, whether they’ll stick or be reversed, and how other countries might respond. Interestingly, HSBC predicted potential reversals, which we’ve now started to see with Trump pausing the tariffs temporarily…apart from China’s tariffs which are now at 124%. It’s a good sign that their economic forecasting is holding up.
- Consumer & Business Confidence Under Pressure
Across the board, both consumer and business confidence in the US are on the decline. Closer to home, the 10% UK tariff may seem small, but HSBC made clear that it will have a meaningful impact, especially in conjunction with rising US tariffs, which affect global pricing on durable goods and essential imports.
- Mortgage Market Impact: Swap Rates on the Rise
We’re seeing an upward move in swap rate pricing, which directly influences mortgage lender rates. Despite this, HSBC remains confident in their previous forecast that interest rates could reduce to 3% by next year, an encouraging signal for borrowers.
- Labour Market: A Mixed Bag
Although redundancies remain low, a reassuring sign, the number of job vacancies is falling. HSBC pointed out a noticeable freeze in hiring, which could be tied to either cautious government policy or the increasing role of AI in the workforce.
- Wage Growth & Inflation
Wage growth appears stagnant, which isn’t ideal for those looking to buy a home. However, from an inflation-control perspective, this helps stabilise the economy. HSBC stated that a lower base rate would be beneficial if inflation continues to ease.
- Mortgage Product Trends Among Advisers
Surprisingly, only 6% of mortgage advisers on the webinar are currently recommending tracker rate mortgages, while just 13% are suggesting five-year fixed deals. This reflects widespread caution in the market, highlighting the importance of personalised mortgage advice.
Final Thoughts
Even before the latest tariff announcements, there was already a cautious tone in the market. Now, with added economic uncertainty, it’s more crucial than ever to have a clear understanding of your mortgage options.
At Oportfolio Mortgages, we’re here to help you navigate these changing times. Whether your mortgage is up for renewal or you’re looking to buy a new home, our expert advisers, like Jade, can provide tailored guidance to suit your unique circumstances. Contact us today to arrange a free, no-obligation chat about your mortgage needs.
